Methods & indicators (what I looked for)

I drew on state-by-state trackers for: changes to voting rules (ID, mail voting, certification), “educational gag” laws and book restrictions, anti-protest laws, redistricting power and fairness, single-party “trifecta” control, paramilitary/militia law, gun policy environments, and civil-society strength (union density, civic health). Core datasets and explainers are linked in Sources. Highlights include Brennan Center’s state voting law changes since 2020, PEN America’s educational censorship index, ICNL’s U.S. Protest Law Tracker, Ballotpedia’s trifectas, Princeton’s redistricting grades, Georgetown Law ICAP militia fact sheets, Everytown/Giffords state gun law rankings, BLS union density by state, ADL’s incident map, and States United’s election-denier landscape. (Brennan Center for Justice, PEN America, ICNL, Ballotpedia, Gerrymander, Georgetown Law, Everytown Research & Policy, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C., States United Democracy Center)

Risk tiers (comparative, not destiny):
Early (likely early adopters), Mid (could follow amid national shift), Battleground (flashpoints where rules/power fights decide trajectory), Resistant (strong guardrails; still not immune).

50 State Profiles (A → Z)

Alabama — Mid
Recent: Considering tighter “Glock switch” ban after high-profile shootings; overall weak gun-law environment. (AP News, Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; durable single-party control. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Union density well below national average. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Alaska — Mid
Recent: Very weak gun-law framework by national rankings. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP-leaning with split-coalition traditions in legislature; independent streak can blunt extremes. (Trifecta status varies over cycles.) (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Small, engaged electorate; higher volunteerism historically (civic-health reports vary by year). (National Conference on Citizenship)

Arizona — Battleground
Recent: New restrictive mail-ballot cure/signature rules (HB 2785; alongside SB 1003) since 2020; election-denier pressure persists. (Brennan Center for Justice, Arizona Legislature, States United Democracy Center)
Dynamics: Divided control in recent cycles; repeated postelection conflicts.
Civil society: Robust organizing across parties; litigation capacity high.

Arkansas — Mid
Recent: Among weakest gun-law frameworks; saw education/curriculum and library debates. (Everytown Research & Policy, PEN America)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; supermajority reduces internal checks. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Lower union density; faith-based networks active. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

California — Resistant
Recent: Considering aggressive counter-gerrymander via special election to offset GOP mid-decade redistricting elsewhere—controversial given CA’s independent commission. (Politico)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; strong administrative capacity; high media scrutiny. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: High union membership (2.4M members). (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Colorado — Resistant
Recent: Continued expansion/access measures in voting in recent cycles; independent redistricting. (Brennan Center for Justice, Gerrymander)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta with strong civic groups. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Growing multiracial coalitions; active local press.

Connecticut — Resistant
Recent: “A” gun-law grade; persistent gun-safety policy since Sandy Hook. (CT Insider)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; guardrails strong. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Dense nonprofit/journalism ecosystem.

Delaware — Resistant
Recent: Tends to expand access; low tolerance for election denial. (Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; small, professionalized state. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Active unions relative to size. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Florida — Early
Recent: “Stop WOKE” (HB 7) sought to restrict instruction; repeatedly enjoined in higher ed; anti-protest law earlier; press/education chill reported. (American Civil Liberties Union, FIRE, ICNL)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; strong gubernatorial centralization. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Large advocacy presence but climate deters dissent.

Georgia — Battleground
Recent: SB 202 rewired elections (including board control pressure); State Election Board rule push to enable hand counts/delay certification blocked by GA Supreme Court. (Georgia General Assembly, Vox, Georgia Recorder)
Dynamics: Split statewide outcomes; intense contestation over administration.
Civil society: Strong, multiracial mobilization and litigation capacity.

Hawaii — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun-safety framework; high unionization (top U.S.). (Everytown Research & Policy, Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta, but robust norms against power abuse. (Ballotpedia)

Idaho — Early
Recent: 2024 HB 710 “harmful to minors” library law took effect; publishers and libraries suing. (Idaho Commission for Libraries, The Guardian)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; strong far-right activism. (Ballotpedia)
Civil society: Rural networks resilient; press under pressure in culture-war fights.

Illinois — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun-safety regime; expanded voter access. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; large institutional ecosystem. (Ballotpedia)

Indiana — Mid
Recent: Weak gun-law environment; notable spike in ADL-tracked antisemitic incidents in 2024. (Everytown Research & Policy, Axios)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; some intraparty moderation via business sector. (Ballotpedia)

Iowa — Mid
Recent: Trend toward tighter election rules post-2020; educational content restrictions debated. (Brennan Center for Justice, PEN America)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; courts still provide some brake. (Ballotpedia)

Kansas — Mid
Recent: Weak gun-law ranking; veto-override politics common. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Split control historically (Dem governor vs GOP legislature) creates friction.
Civil society: Civic, faith, and journalism nonprofits active.

Kentucky — Mid
Recent: Very weak gun-law framework; voting access mixed; GOP supermajorities. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: GOP legislature vs. Dem governor produces checks.
Civil society: Labor legacy remains, though density low. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Louisiana — Mid
Recent: Weak gun-law environment; voting changes trend restrictive. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta as of 2024–25 cycle. (Ballotpedia)

Maine — Resistant
Recent: Gun policies moderate; consensus governance traditions. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Swing-ish history but institutional norms strong; independent voters key.
Civil society: Town-meeting culture; local news footprint matters.

Maryland — Resistant
Recent: Among strongest gun-law frameworks; pro-access election policy. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; diverse civil sector. (Ballotpedia)

Massachusetts — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun laws; civic education and municipal home rule robust. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; rule-of-law culture entrenched. (Ballotpedia)

Michigan — Battleground (lean-resistant)
Recent: Post-2020 reforms to protect certification and access; election-denier pressure receded at state level. (Brennan Center for Justice, States United Democracy Center)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta (2023–24) strengthened guardrails. (Ballotpedia)

Minnesota — Resistant
Recent: Gun-law strengthening; pro-democracy package in 2023 (access, registration). (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; active civic groups. (Ballotpedia)

Mississippi — Early
Recent: Among the weakest gun-law systems and toughest access hurdles. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; structural barriers entrenched. (Ballotpedia)

Missouri — Mid
Recent: Weak gun-law framework; redistricting fights ongoing. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; one-party dominance in legislature. (Ballotpedia)

Montana — Mid
Recent: Very weak gun laws; library/school content fights. (Everytown Research & Policy, PEN America)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; courts still a check. (Ballotpedia)

Nebraska — Mid
Recent: Unicameral officially nonpartisan but GOP-led; voting changes mixed. (Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Republican control of governor’s office; civic-health orgs active. (lwvnebraska.org)

Nevada — Battleground
Recent: Red-flag updated; firearm law gaps vs. neighbors spotlighted by cross-border incidents. (Reuters)
Dynamics: Split control in recent cycles; close statewide races.
Civil society: Strong union presence (Culinary Workers et al.).

New Hampshire — Resistant (watchlist)
Recent: Weak gun-law ranking, but civic norms and court independence strong. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Ticket-splitting tradition moderates extremes.

New Jersey — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun-safety regime; pro-access elections. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; robust watchdog media. (Ballotpedia)

New Mexico — Mid (lean-resistant)
Recent: Aggressive gun-violence prevention push; still high violence rates. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; rural-urban split meaningful. (Ballotpedia)

New York — Resistant
Recent: Strongest gun-law tier; major union membership (1.7M). (Everytown Research & Policy, Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; active anticorruption press. (Ballotpedia)

North Carolina — Battleground
Recent: 2023 SB 749 shifted state election board appointment power from governor to legislature via veto override, raising partisan-control concerns. (North Carolina General Assembly, North Carolina General Assembly, The Daily Tar Heel)
Dynamics: Split government historically; razor-thin checks.
Civil society: Dense legal/advocacy infrastructure.

North Dakota — Mid
Recent: Weak gun-law regime; low population eases one-party control. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; civic vigilance needed. (Ballotpedia)

Ohio — Mid (watch battleground drift)
Recent: Weak gun-law tier; redistricting and citizen-initiative fights. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; courts pivotal. (Ballotpedia)

Oklahoma — Early
Recent: Among weakest gun-law frameworks; anti-protest and education-gag pushes. (Everytown Research & Policy, ICNL, PEN America)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; militia activity in region a concern (see ICAP). (Georgetown Law)

Oregon — Resistant (watch rural-urban split)
Recent: Pro-access voting posture; firearms tightened post-measure debates. (Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; protests frequent but protected; ICNL tracks bills. (ICNL)

Pennsylvania — Battleground
Recent: Ongoing attempts to alter election administration blunted by split control; gun laws mid-strong. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Dem governor with competitive legislature.
Civil society: Deep bench of media/litigation groups.

Rhode Island — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun-safety moves; high civic participation. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta. (Ballotpedia)

South Carolina — Mid
Recent: Very weak gun-law environment; protest and curriculum bills surface. (Everytown Research & Policy, ICNL)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; low union density bottom-tier. (Seafarers International Union)

South Dakota — Mid
Recent: Weakest-tier gun laws; voting access changes since 2020 tracked. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; initiative process targeted in recent years. (Ballotpedia)

Tennessee — Early
Recent: House expelled two Democrats for protest—signal of illiberal norm-breaking. (Tennessee Lookout, TIME)
Dynamics: GOP supermajority; protest restrictions and education fights continuing (see ICNL/PEN). (ICNL, PEN America)

Texas — Early
Recent: SB 1 (2021) reshaped voting; mail voting fell; 5th Circuit upheld key provisions in 2025; mid-decade redistricting push intensifies power politics. (The Texas Tribune, Statesman, The Week)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; large activist & media counter-ecosystem. (Ballotpedia)

Utah — Mid
Recent: Conservative governance with some institutional moderation; protest and curriculum bills limited compared to neighbors. (ICNL)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; strong Latter-day Saint civic institutions often restrain conflict. (Ballotpedia)

Vermont — Resistant
Recent: Strong civic culture; mid-strong gun policies. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: Dem/Progressive control; open local government norms. (Ballotpedia)

Virginia — Resistant (swing)
Recent: Election-access protections remain comparatively strong; divided government toggles. (Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Alternating control creates cross-partisan guardrails.

Washington — Resistant
Recent: Strong gun-law tier; pro-access voting. (Everytown Research & Policy, Brennan Center for Justice)
Dynamics: Dem trifecta; vibrant local media. (Ballotpedia)

West Virginia — Early/Mid
Recent: Union collapse + one-party dominance; education/protest restrictions trend. (ICNL)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; demographic out-migration weakens counterweights. (Ballotpedia)

Wisconsin — Battleground
Recent: 2023 state Supreme Court struck down noncontiguous legislative maps; governor approved new “fair maps” in 2024—major guardrail restoration. (Wisconsin Examiner, WPR, GovDelivery)
Dynamics: Split government historically; fiercely contested administration rules.
Civil society: Deep pro-democracy organizing.

Wyoming — Mid
Recent: Very weak gun-law tier; small electorate eases one-party rule. (Everytown Research & Policy)
Dynamics: GOP trifecta; civic resilience relies on local relationships. (Ballotpedia)

New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Maryland, Connecticut, Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware together anchor the Resistant tier due to strong institutions, independent courts/commissions, pro-access voting laws, and dense civil society, though none are immune to power grabs (e.g., California’s current counter-gerrymander debate). (Brennan Center for Justice, Gerrymander, Politico)

Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia exemplify Early risk via centralized one-party control plus restrictive voting/education/protest environments and weaker guardrails. (Brennan Center for Justice, PEN America, ICNL)

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin are Battleground states where small legal changes—or court rulings—swing the national trajectory. (Brennan Center for Justice, Georgia General Assembly, Wisconsin Examiner)

What stops a slide? Practical solutions (state & local first)

• Protect election administration from partisans: independent or bipartisan boards; clear certification timelines; criminal penalties for intimidation of election workers. (Brennan Center for Justice)
• Guarantee voter access & neutral rules: restore/strengthen VRA-style protections; ban mid-decade gerrymanders; adopt independent redistricting; curb extreme partisan map-drawing. (Brennan Center for Justice, Gerrymander)
• Safeguard speech, education, & assembly: sunset clauses and judicial review for “education gag” or anti-protest bills; presume content neutrality; fund school/library legal defense. (PEN America, ICNL)
• Deter political violence: enforce existing anti-paramilitary statutes; clear guidance to sheriffs/mayors on unlawful militias; coordinate with state AGs. (Georgetown Law)
• Invest in civil society: rebuild local journalism; support nonpartisan civic-health coalitions; expand union/community membership (shown to correlate with civic resilience). (National Conference on Citizenship, Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Cross-partisan compacts: both parties publicly refuse support to candidates who reject certified results or encourage political violence; track and expose “election-denier” networks. (States United Democracy Center)

Notes on uncertainty

These profiles synthesize public trackers and recent rulings, not private risk assessments. States move between tiers as laws change (e.g., Wisconsin’s 2023–24 map rulings).

Sources & further reading (state-by-state trackers)

• Voting rules since 2020 (state pages & interactive): Brennan Center “State-by-State Guide to Restrictive Changes to Voter ID, Mail Voting, and Ballot Collection” and Voting Laws Roundups. (Brennan Center for Justice)
• Educational censorship / “gag order” bills & book restrictions: PEN America report & live index. (PEN America)
• Protest/assembly restrictions: ICNL U.S. Protest Law Tracker (filter by “enacted”). (ICNL)
• State government “trifectas” & control: Ballotpedia (trifectas, vulnerability). (Ballotpedia)
• Redistricting fairness & grades: Princeton Gerrymandering Project. (Gerrymander)
• Unlawful militias & paramilitary law (50-state fact sheets): Georgetown Law ICAP. (Georgetown Law)
• Gun-law strength rankings & policy comparisons: Everytown research; Giffords Law Center scorecard. (Everytown Research & Policy, GIFFORDS)
• Union density by state (2024): BLS tables & release. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Extremism incidents (state map): ADL H.E.A.T. Map; SPLC Year in Hate. (Washington, D.C., Southern Poverty Law Center)
• Election-denier landscape: States United Democracy Center (ElectionDeniers.org; 2025 landscape). (electiondeniers.org, States United Democracy Center)
• Illustrative state rulings/bills cited above:
  • GA SB 202 (2021) + later SEB rules blocked (2025): GA legislative text & GA Recorder coverage. (Georgia General Assembly, Georgia Recorder)
  • TX SB 1 (2021) & 2025 appellate posture; mail-voting drop: Texas Tribune; Austin American-Statesman recap of 5th Circuit ruling. (The Texas Tribune, Statesman)
  • FL “Stop WOKE” (HB 7) litigation status (higher ed injunction): ACLU & FIRE summaries. (American Civil Liberties Union, FIRE)
  • ID HB 710 (2024) library law: Idaho Commission for Libraries; Guardian coverage of publisher lawsuit. (Idaho Commission for Libraries, The Guardian)
  • TN House expulsions (2023): AP/Time coverage. (AP News, TIME)
  • WI maps struck down (2023) & fair maps (2024): WI Examiner; Wisconsin Public Radio; Gov. Evers’ statement. (Wisconsin Examiner, WPR, GovDelivery)